Dan Bloomquist said:
Would you agree we should not put our hopes for energy solutions into
hydrogen?
Yes. If I had to bet, I wouldn't put hydrogen as a front-runner of
possible candidates to replace/supplement fossil (nor did I ever say I
think it was). However, I would not discount it either. It's
certainly possible. Only the future will tell.
I did not see the name of an author at the beginning or end of the
article. So, I don't know why I should accept the quote blindly.
But you assumed he was a journalist?
Go down a directory:
http://zebu.uoregon.edu/~js/
He's a professor.
The Bell X-1 broke the 'sound barrier' in 1947 and it wasn't an
accident. It was not done with an unknown science.
You're making one enormous assumption with this statement: that in
order for something to be accomplished, *everything* about it has to
be understood before hand. This is most certainly not true. If your
statement is correct, then explain the following:
1. Fact: the X-1's original contract called for it to be stable up to
only 0.8 Mach. Why didn't they design it for 1.0 Mach if they
understood supersonic flight? The fact is, they didn't know what kind
of effects they'd encounter over 0.8 Mach. That's why they did many,
many incremental flights slowly increasing in speed, and adjusting
things based on knowledge gained.
If they completely understood supersonic flight from the beginning,
why didn't they just break the sound barrier on the first flight?
2. The X-1 lost its elevator effectiveness when it first reached
about .94 Mach. This was not unexpected by the designers. If
supersonic flight was truely understood, then why was this allowed to
happen? (note the word "discovery" in the following quote):
"So important was this discovery that nearly every transonic and
supersonic aircraft since that time has had an all-movable horizontal
stabilizer..."
http://www.dfrc.nasa.gov/History/HistoricAircraft/X-1/techdata.html
3. The X-1 had straight wings. Look at every supersonic aircraft
after that. They have swept wings. Why? Because engineers didn't
fully understand the advantages of swept wings in terms of supersonic
flight. Or do you have another suggestion?
If you need some more quotes, here's a few:
[of the x-planes]
"Their sole purpose was to explore and document the unknown."
"The unusual part was that these aircraft had no obvious purpose other
than expanding our knowledge of aeronautics."
http://oea.larc.nasa.gov/PAIS/Supersonic.html
"Although the X-15 has provided much new knowledge about this
once-feared region, its return journey from there has proved even more
fruitful."
"...reentry flight has been mastered, and many previous unknowns no
longer remain."
http://www.hq.nasa.gov/office/pao/History/SP-60/ch-1.html
So, back to the point. In 1950 it was understood that a rocket could get
a man to the moon.
Actually, your original comment was:
"In 1950 the physics of going to the moon was well understood."
They knew it might be "possible". Saying we KNEW it could be done in
1950 is false. What if solar radiation outside the Van Allen belts
had been 100,000 times what it really is? What if the X-15 had
experienced aerodynamic heating that heated the leading edges to 2200F
at only Mach 3.5 instead of 6.7? Hindsight's 20/20, and these were
unknowns in 1950.
It was understood that there was no physical
limitation to stand in the way.
See above comments. You're saying people in 1950 could predict the
future with 100% accuracy. Also, your forgetting an additional point
of mine was that it only took 20 years from 1950. Sure, alot of
people probably figured it might be possible to get to the moon (once
the knowledge AND technology developed), but how many people would
have thought it possible in only 20 years?