This explanation confirms what I see with such lamps in cold weather. The
older the lamp, the higher the strike voltage and so the more likely it is
to flicker. Eventually, the energy from the flickering arc should warm the
lamp enough to sustain it without flickering (unless the lamp is at
end-of-life) so it would be interesting to hear from anyone who has watched
a flickering lamp for a while to see if that indeed does happen.
With the SOX I've seen doing this, the flicker is happening when fully
run-up. I haven't watched one of these during run-up, so I don't know
if it happens during run-up. Temperature wasn't low when this happened,
and I suspect that's not relevant.
I don't have a sample dead one with this failure mode (which isn't
common), so I can't inspect the lamp to see what visible failure
indication there might be. As a pure guess, I might speculate that
the emission material is sputted off the electrodes, and it can't
sustain an arc in thermionic emission mode. The 35W SOX has an
ignitor/starter which is probably repeatedly trying to start it.
The larger ones use a leakage reactance transformer to provide both
the starting voltage and current limiting, because the arc voltage
is too high for a simple series ballast on 240V, and so don't need
an ignitor/starter. I don't think I've seen the larger ones flashing;
when the emission coating wears out, they seem to fail to light up
at all (or with only a very dim glow around the electrodes which
you can't see from the ground).
IME more common failure mode of SOX is the arc tube develops a leak
and the sodium is ejected into the outer vacuum tube, where it often
forms an opaque mirror coating on the inside of the bulb facing
the ejection point, so the light no longer escapes through part of
the bulb (can block out most of it eventually). The arc tube seems
to be able to lose a lot of sodium in this way, yet still work, but
eventually it turns into a dim red neon light which never runs-up
(nicknamed a "red burner"), as there's no longer enough sodium left
in the arc tube, just the neon starting gas.