S
Sylvia Else
krw said:Nonsense. Ever hear of mountain climbing?
Doesn't appear to have a 1 in 50 death rate *per climb*. More like 1 in
50 per year amongst people engaged in the sport of mountain climbing.
Sylvia.
krw said:Nonsense. Ever hear of mountain climbing?
Nonsense. Ever hear of mountain climbing?
Nonsense. Ever hear of mountain climbing?
Maybe not now. But that's why we've got to get to work on the
technology. That money will be better spent than sending up astronauts
with the requisite life support just to have them drop tools.
Well, if dubya can piss away a few trillion in the Iraqi sand
what's a mission to mars?
krw said:It's not a "few trillion"...
Sylvia Else said:Which was never reasonable, because of the implied reliability of
better than 1 in 20,000 for each solid fuel boosters. When did they
ever have a reason to think that SRBs were that reliable?
John said:I guess they "added up" the probabilities of all the known failure
mechanisms and that's what they got. Unfortunately, that did not
account for the *unknown* ones .
I think that's where the notion of MTBF goes wrong - it seems to
assume that the actual design itself is flawless.
Michael said:Did you read the Challenger report? They decided that the SRB
housing was flexing at the joints and redesigned the lips to reduce the
chances of burn though.
Michael said:Did you include the costs incurred by rioting antiwar freaks?
Vietnam was a long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away!
Estimates for the total cost of the Iraq war, including care for the
long term disabled, is between 3 and 6 trillion. Iraq is more expensive
than Vietnam.
Doesn't appear to have a 1 in 50 death rate *per climb*. More like 1 in
50 per year amongst people engaged in the sport of mountain climbing.
krw said:Think again. Try Everest or "free style" (no equipnent allowed
besides your limbs), I think it's called. Even McKinley is
dangerous. Hell, they lose a few on the puny Northeast slopes every
year.
Yes. The thing is that they had plenty of warning that things weren't
right. They just ignored it, pretty much on the grounds that it didn't
break yesterday, so it won't break today. Similar management complacency
can be seen behind the Columbia disaster.
Managing risk seems to be a task that is frequently beyond the abilities
of managers.
Sylvia.- Hide quoted text -
- Show quoted text -
Yes. The thing is that they had plenty of warning that things weren't
right. They just ignored it, pretty much on the grounds that it didn't
break yesterday, so it won't break today. Similar management complacency
can be seen behind the Columbia disaster.
Managing risk seems to be a task that is frequently beyond the abilities
of managers.
Richard said:The shuttle had o-ring erosions that weren't a problem until they
were, and breakaway foam chunks that weren't a problem until they
were. If I were either a NASA administrator or a shuttle astronaut, I
would want to know what other problems were not yet problems.
Dirk Bruere at NeoPax said:Google "cost iraq war Stiglitz"
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23286149-2703,00.html
"THE Iraq war has cost the US 50-60 times more than the Bush
administration predicted and was a central cause of the sub-prime
banking crisis threatening the world economy, according to Nobel
Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz.
The former World Bank vice-president yesterday said the war had, so
far, cost the US something like $US3trillion ($3.3 trillion) compared
with the $US50-$US60-billion predicted in 2003.
...
Professor Stiglitz told the Chatham House think tank in London that
the Bush White House was currently estimating the cost of the war at
about $US500 billion, but that figure massively understated things
such as the medical and welfare costs of US military servicemen.
The war was now the second-most expensive in US history after World
War II and the second-longest after Vietnam, he said. "
But it is a much cheaper and lighter solution than the alternatives.
And even if you avoided external foam you can still have nasty chunks
of water ice formed on the outside of the tank under condensing
conditions that would be just as damaging. Florida is not exactly
noted for its low humidity.None, not even CBS news ever believe 1:10000. I believe the
post-Challenger number is more like 1:100, which for such a stack of
bailing wire and bubblegum isn't all that bad.
That is a bit unkind to it. But it was always dependent on many new
technologies all working perfectly. The ceramic tiles are very
impressive to see in action on test close up. Even if they were also a
worrying source of single point failure modes on reentry.Age has nothing to do with it. Even NASA doesn't pretend it has a
mission anymore.- Hide quoted text -
The manned space mission has been reduced to going round in an
orbiting tin can to no useful purpose. The ISS science program is
distinctly unimpressive. The only thing the ISS project does is
prevent a few Russian rocket scientists freelancing for the likes of N
Korea and Iran. People in space are not especially useful any more
unless you have to do something that a robot cannot.
The unmanned robotic space exploration work of NASA is extremely
impressive with the Hubble Space Telescope images foremost among the
better known coffee table books and calendars. The Mars and other
planetary explorers have done very well too. So long as they repair
and upgrade the HST before they retire the Shuttle I don't mind either
way.
Too bad they can't just dust off the plans for a Saturn V. That was a
really impressive launch vehicle.
It might be fun to go back to the moon at least once and retrieve one
of the Hassleblads they abandonned there just to annoy the tin foil
hat brigade of conspiracy freaks who claim Apollo was faked. Now we
know where there is water ice in the shade of polar craters there is
scope for doing something new and interesting again on the moon.
Regards,
Martin Brown
Martin said:That is a bit unkind to it. But it was always dependent on many new
technologies all working perfectly. The ceramic tiles are very
impressive to see in action on test close up. Even if they were also a
worrying source of single point failure modes on reentry.
Suicide is even riskier. But neither case could be be described as
exposing people to the risks.