COVID-19

[(*steve*)]

Hi everyone. I am now entering my third day of self-isolation following becoming unwell with flu-like symptoms.

Whilst I thought it would be a great opportunity to do some stuff I had lined up, I'm simply lacking the desire to do much at all.

Neither my wife nor myself qualify for COVID-19 tests, but we do qualify for up to 20 working days of additional paid leave.

My wife spent about 10 minutes talking to a person who had just returned from overseas. This was just prior to all overseas arrivals needing to go into self isolation, and before all arrivals were tested. 10 minutes chatting to someone outside doesn't qualify as "close contact" with someone recently arrived from overseas. Our doctor thinks there is a good chance we have a fairly mild case of this disease.

We were prepared for being locked in, and have only had first world problems, like running out of jalapenos, and having to ask friends to pick up items from the post office.

My day job is in the health industry, and I had been taking precautions seriously, and I am taking self isolation similarly seriously.

My thoughts go out to anyone in a similar or worse situation.

I was feeling really run down for maybe 4 days prior to getting the first symptoms, so if you're feeling like that please remember to be extra diligent with your social distancing.

 

[Nanren888]

*Steve*, Hang in there. My team leader was the first local to be positive on the Diamond Princess.
He said that for him it was more mild than normal flu. His son didn't even slow down. Just watched TV through the whole thing.
Maybe avoiding the cabin fever is the manin thing.

 

[(*steve*)]

I was especially interested in what was happening on the Diamond Princess because I have traveled in this ship.

Being stuck in a suite wouldn't be so bad, but in a 4 berth cabin, or heaven forbid, an inside cabin would have been a nightmare. I can't imagine what it was like for the crew.

 

[Harald Kapp]

Hopefully all will be well. Get well soon!
No symptoms here yet - hope it stays that way.

I am among the lucky ones who can work from home for the time being. You need to get used to your home being your workplace, but it is manageable and better than not being able to work at all.

 

[Nanren888]

Yeah, actually I thought about the crew at the time too. Didn't hear much about them. Our man had a balcony, could look out on the reporters and such and get some fresh air.

 

[Kiwi]

Hope you get well soon Steve.

Here in New Zealand we have just had the first day of a 4 week nationwide lockdown. Most workplaces, factories, shops, offices, etc are closed unless they are deemed as an essential service.
McDonald's, KFC etc are even shut! People might have to learn how to cook.

Like many people, I have set up a home office. I am on call as I work in an essential industry. I can only work on essential equipment that is on an approved list.

Wife and I went for a walk this morning. You have to keep at least 2m away from anyone else that is also out walking. Very few people about or cars on the road.

We stocked up on paint etc to finish some projects and give the house a touch up.

 

[davenn]

take care mate, get well soon

 

[bertus]

Hello,

Take care. Hope things will pass soon.
How is the situation in your country?
In the netherlands we are in an "inteligent lockdown" as they call it:
https://www.rivm.nl/en/novel-coronavirus-covid-19/questions-and-answers

I am at home for the past two weeks.
I am a service engineer and a lot of companies are posponing service due to the corona.
Only operations critical services are done now.

Bertus

 

[bertus]

Hello,

@(*steve*) , I hope you are well.

The world is reaching for 1000.000 infections already:


Corona seems to be much worse as the flu:

Bertus

 

[(*steve*)]

10 million by the 20th April @bertus?

 

[Nanren888]

Oz 5,136 cases

 

[bertus]

Hello,

I noticed that about a quarter of the coronavirus cases is in the US:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The netherland is 12th in the "ranking".

Of the cases in the US about a third is in New York:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Bertus

 

[Hopup]

Most wont get any serious symptoms, its like flue on most cases. I remember reading 4 out of 5 have it without noticing anything. Blood group A can get more serious symptoms potentially easier.

 

[shrtrnd]

08APR20 US Death Toll from Covid 19 = 14,200. Here in the State of Arizona = 80.
The female doctor at President Trump's daily news conference says anybody that dies WITH Covid 19 positive, IS being listed
as dying from Covid 19. Apparently anybody here with a serious medical condition: diabetes. heart condition, lungs, kidneys, age, etc ... is at highest risk, and even if they die of the heart attack, renal failure, lung cancer or old age; if they have been diagnosed as Covid 19 positive, they are being counted as dying of Covid 19.
Everybody says it's really bad to be infected and you can be subject to severe symptoms, but it seems to me 'somebody' is running-up the death toll numbers for some reason. I don't envy anybody who develops the severe symptoms of this virus, and a lot of us are praying for *steve* and everyone else experiencing sickness during this pandemic and flu season.

 

[bertus]

Hello,

Here is a link to the WorldOmeters corona page:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

At the moment there are almost 1.500.000 cases and 87.000 deaths worldwide.

The page is updated very frequently.

Bertus

 

[(*steve*)]

Thanks for your thoughts @shrtrnd, I am now much better. As bad as it was, I think my wife and I had the flu rather than covid-19.

I have recently seen reports that "deaths at home" in the elderly population in New York is almost 10 times the normal value. The reporting I have heard suggests that those who test +ve at post mortem were NOT being counted, but are now counted as suspected deaths due to Covid-19, not confirmed.

I am employed in the health system of my country, and I can share a few guidelines for interpreting numbers of cases.

It's a pretty safe assumption that it has an approximately 14 day incubation period, and this tends to be evident in reductions of positive tests (whether absolute, or by decreased rate of growth) about 2 weeks after action is taken to reduce spread. So if you're looking at the number of newly diagnosed cases, you need to compare it to the number of cases 2 weeks earlier in order to determine how fast it is being spread. Note that this can also change if testing regimes are altered, so it's more difficult in practice than in theory.

Calculating the spread rate gives you a sensitive indication that you are flattening the curve. What you are looking for is the rate of infection lowering and going below 1. You tend to see this before you see the number of cases plateau.

The calculation above only works during exponential spread. As the rate of spread decreases you'll need to change the comparison figure from all those diagnosed 2 weeks earlier, to those diagnosed in some period from 2 weeks ago. The deaths calculation below uses that technique.

Death rates are far more complex.

When it comes to the death rate, you can typically assume that while medical services are available, the vast majority of people with severe symptoms will be diagnosed. And, with the same caveat on health services, most people who die of covid have been in hospital on ventilators. The problem is that good medical care can keep some people alive for weeks, and others succumb in days. This it's really hard to estimate a fatality rate unless you know the date of diagnosis, a figure that is typically not in the public domain.

I would be keeping an eye on the number of deaths vs the number of cases diagnosed between 6 and 2 weeks ago. If you do this you may find the number is higher than you expect. This should result in a relatively constant rate. If you notice it starting to increase, that is a sign of the medical system being overloaded to the point at which people who would otherwise survive are succumbing.

We won't know the actual death rate until there is a reliable antibody test that can be used to estimate the exposed population.

The US is showing a much higher rate at present that other countries that have done far more testing. Assuming the US health care system isn't to blame, this is reasonable evidence of a large number of undiagnosed, and possibly asymptomatic cases.

If you're going to do any of the calculations above, be aware that the data is quite noisy, and averaging daily figures over 3 days or so will help clean up the data.

 

[shrtrnd]

Glad you're recovering *steve*. Sounds like it was a pretty bad experience.

 

[bertus]

Hello,

Here is an translation of a dutch article:

Researchers Radboudumc discover "missing puzzle piece" in fighting coronavirus

NIJMEGEN - Researchers from the Nijmegen Radboud university medical center have made an important discovery in the course of the disease in corona.
This could be of great importance in the treatment of the lung virus, the researchers say in a publication on the scientific platform Preprints.

Because how is it that in some cases the lungs of corona patients deteriorate so quickly?
The researchers followed a number of patients closely and concluded that the shortness of breath of the sick may not be due to an infection alone.
Frank van de Veerdonk, internist-infectiologist at Radboudumc:
,, We had the idea that during this process the very small blood vessels in the lungs also leak. That leak is causing problems for the lungs, because they partly fill up. ”

"Set up treatments now"

One possible reason is that an important enzyme - called ACE2 - is sidelined by corona.
ACE2 is important for the human body, including to control the substance bradykinin.
Van de Veerdonk: ,, Bradykinin makes blood vessels leak. We have good reason to believe that with this Covid-19 infection we see exactly this effect. ACE2 receptors disappear because of the virus, which gives bradykinin free rein and the small blood vessels leak massively at the site of infection. ”

This may be crucial in the treatment of corona patients. After all, there are means to inhibit the action of bradykinin.
Radboud university medical center will now investigate this, together with the UMC in Utrecht, among others.
"We are busy setting up our first treatments," says Van de Veerdonk. "Because for every good idea, the corresponding proof must first be provided."

The origenal article:
https://www.destentor.nl/nijmegen/o...kje-bij-bestrijding-van-coronavirus~a1a91b2b/

Bertus

 

[bertus]

Hello,

10 million by the 20th April

We "only" got 2.4 million cases upto now:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Bertus

 

[(*steve*)]

Yep, that is an indication that actions taken are controlling the spread. The growth rate in many areas of the world is now closer to linear than exponential.

The next hurdle for many countries will be determining how and when they will reduce the restrictions they've put in place.

There is a knife edge, on one side is insufficient control leading to more cases than can be handled, in the other is a near eradication of the disease that leaves the population vulnerable. On the edge is allowing controlled spread through the community to build up herd immunity.

If a vaccine is expected in the near term, eliminating the infection is ok. If not, the controlled spread may be preferred. Countries highly dependant on tourism, especially those that have managed to keep infections to a very low level, are placed in a very nasty position.

My personal preference is for really good control and continued lockdowns. It doesn't affect me financially, and I quite enjoy it. However I doubt that I'm in the majority.

There are still parts of the world I'm really concerned about though. India, Pacific islands, parts of the Middle East and parts of Europe all face different and perplexing issues.

I was really worried about the US, but it seems that the states are working together and achieving a large measure of success, despite the vacuum in the federal government.