Good question,
You are right with your idea, exept that you didn't consider the temperature
dependence of Is, which doubles every 10 degrees and thus together they
roughly decrease by 2mV/K
Yes, though none of the other respondents appear to know anything
about it.
Here is the EM model equation for how Is varies with temperature,
ignoring the emission coefficient (taken as 1, for now), the equation
is, for the OP:
Id(T) = Is(T) * ( e^( q*Vd / (k*T) ) - 1 )
which becomes:
Vd(T) = (k*T/q) * ln( 1 + Ic/Is(T) )
The derivative is then trivially:
d Vd(T) = (k/q) * ln( 1 + Ic/Is(T) ) dT
which is a positive trend, very nearly +2mV/K for modest Ic... but
__positive__.
However, that isn't the whole picture. Is also varies with temp:
Is(T) = Is(Tnom) * (T/Tnom)^3 * e^( -(q*Eg/k) * (1/T-1/Tnom) )
The new derivative is a bit large.
Assume:
X = T^3 * Isat * e^(q*Eg/(k*Tnom))
Y = Tnom^3 * Ic * e^(q*Eg/(k*T))
Then the derivative, I think, is:
X+Y
k*Tnom*T*( (X+Y) * ln( -------- ) - 3*Y ) - q*Eg*( X*T+Y*T+Y*Tnom )
Isat*T^3
---------------------------------------------------------------------
q * Tnom * T * (X+Y)
Tnom is the nominal temperature (Kelvin, of course) at which the
device data is taken and Eg is the effective energy gap in electron
volts for the semiconductor material. Of course, 'k' is Boltzmann's
constant and T is the temperature of interest.
Eg defaults to 1.11 eV in spice, I think. For an Ic=10uA and a stock
Isat of about 1E-15, the figure comes out to about -2.07mV/K in the
vicinity of 20 Celsius ambient.
Jon