mike said:
I think we're in heated agreement. If you have the muscle
(engineering, marketing, sales, manufacturing, finance) to take
advantage of being first, then being and staying number one is
critical.
But that's not the scenario here. We're talking about a simple
product with no barriers to entry higher than sanding the numbers
off the ICs.
If you're making a simple product and your business savvy amounts
to asking how to do it in an internet newsgroup and you don't have any
of the above-mentioned muscle and you dribble it out in production
lots of 50 and sell them on the internet, all you're doing is
feasibility work for the big guys. They (being number 2) will
absolutely take your market away from you with their first batch
of 100,000 units through their 5000 distributors. Make a coffee cup
with "I was first" on it so you'll have something to remember it by.
I don't think it really works like that in practice. The big guys are
often/usually too far removed from reality to keep tabs on the small
players untill the small players get way above the noise floor. Then the
big guys simply buy the small guys out.
If you watch your expenses, you might just make a tidy profit off
those first few batches, but you ain't gonna get big and still stay
under the radar of the guys who are already big. And those big guys
probably already have several product lines supporting a marketing
and sales infrastructure that you don't have.
As I noted above, you have to be pretty reasonable sized for the bigger
guys to notice at all, imo. What they really care about is are you
significantly impacting their existing sales. This was something I truly
saw coming when Orcad bought out Microsim/PSpice.
Small guys often go the bigger guys right from day one, they usually
don't care. Big guys only care about big markets, not potentially big
markets, in practise. That is, they are usually not on he ball enough to
know if the smaller product can make the big time. They want proof. It
the classic, only those that can prove that they don't need a loan, get
a loan.
Perhaps I need to state my assumption that a market actually exists
and being number one is synonymous with being BIG.
The only way I know to make a successful jump to big time is to shoot
the whole wad with investors and big bux.
The only guaranteed way to make a small fortune, is to start with a
large one, and lose some of it.
You can probably point to
many more failures than successes when trying this.
To my knowledge, the accepted success rate is 10%.
Most directly
related to poor market research and an inflated assessment of the
market potential.
I don't agree. People always like to blame something/someone for
failure. I don't think that anything has to be wrong at all to fail. Its
the norm. The key ingredient to any and all success is luck. The real
world is far to complicated to be able to make predictions of success.
Its all hindsight. As McNally says, the only valid marketing survey, is
a signed purchase order.
And a belief that being first will make everything
OK.
This is on a par to those daft wallys that think they will make it as a
pop star if they really believe in themselves and give it full
commitment, partly because of those bigger idiots who have happened to
made it, and believe that's what got them there. The reality is that
there are far too few slots for the available coins.
The market, whatever it is, cannot absorb all ofv the new products.
Everything can be exactly right, but still fail. The pop star case
illustrates this well. Maybe out of the 1000000 hopefuls, 10% of them
have the basics. The next 10% of them, have some more, looks, ability,
etc... the next 10%. say 1000 of them, are all brilliant,
handsome/beautiful, great voice, charisma, play 3 instruments, live next
door to Simon Cowell, etc, etc but guess what, there only room for 10
this year.
Its a very ingrained view in most that if you don't get success, then
there must have been something wrong done. That there is something
lacking. The statistics just don't support this view. Given essentially,
the same conditions, the inherent uncertainty or randomness of the
system, will result in different outcomes. You can build a door, and
keep it open, but if the wind don't blow, the rose wont float through
it.
Kevin Aylward
salesEXTRACT@anasoft.co.uk
http://www.anasoft.co.uk
SuperSpice, a very affordable Mixed-Mode
Windows Simulator with Schematic Capture,
Waveform Display, FFT's and Filter Design.