Employability of Computer Programmers in the US

[wally]

My son has expressed an interest in computers and I have attempted to
caution him about the offshoring phenom, to no avail. Is there and
definitive data on the prospects, either positive or negative, for
career potential doing programming?

 

[Rene Tschaggelar]

My son has expressed an interest in computers and I have attempted to
caution him about the offshoring phenom, to no avail. Is there and
definitive data on the prospects, either positive or negative, for
career potential doing programming?

Good question. (Substitute any other tech education)
Some flexibility for the location of the job provided,
together with the basics in hindi and/or chinese ...

Rene

 

[wally]

Yes I have cautioned him about the language realities BUT he, being the
thinking kid he is, noted that by the time he gets finished with the 4
years both India and china will have become far too costly for IBM, MS,
et al and he'll need to guess the subsaharan tongue to master. Why go
through all this, and simply cater to the coming geriatric needs of the
American elder-group by being a nurse?

 

[Tim Wescott]

Good question. (Substitute any other tech education)
Some flexibility for the location of the job provided,
together with the basics in hindi and/or chinese ...

Rene

I was recently talking to an engineering manager at a local company.
Five years ago you could get ten Indian programmers for the price of one
US programmer. Now it's 3:1 and going down. The wage increases in
India are being driven by engineers moving around to get the best pay,
so you can't count on your knowledge base sticking around. Finally,
I've seen their code -- it's crap for anything mission-critical.

I think all of these forces will drive a lot of outsourcing business
back on-shore. Like anything else, look to the US strengths and plan on
working for smaller companies that need English-speaking engineers
working in the same time zone as management or for defense contractors
that need US citizens.

It will also leave a lot of furriners in a position to start their own
high-tech companies making their own cool stuff. Whether this will be
bad for us because we'll have more competition or good because there'll
be more wealth for everyone everywhere to buy stuff is an open question.

One final comment: There are so many languages spoken in India that
when two strangers meet they generally start the conversation in
English, then move to a more common language only if there is one. So
Chinese would be more useful than Hindi, most likely.

 

[Reg Edwards]

Within 10 or 15 years the programming language will be plain English or
Chinese. Programmers will just speak into the microphone.

Programmers will be two for a penny.

 

[wally]

Thanks Tim very insightful. I've tried sterring the boy into security
or something else that requires a physical presence. Having gone
through the pain of an engineering program myself, I don't want to send
him down that path also. Besides, my wallet's just not that fat!

Wages for tech folks here in the NW have leveled off IMHO from the
highs we saw in 1998. Journeymen carpenters make more and don't have to
deal with doubly linked lists

Thx

Wally

 

[Tim Wescott]

Thanks Tim very insightful. I've tried sterring the boy into security
or something else that requires a physical presence. Having gone
through the pain of an engineering program myself, I don't want to send
him down that path also. Besides, my wallet's just not that fat!

Wages for tech folks here in the NW have leveled off IMHO from the
highs we saw in 1998. Journeymen carpenters make more and don't have to
deal with doubly linked lists

Thx

Wally

With me it was a choice between Physics, electrical engineering, or
foreign language -- if one of the three wouldn't pay, I would have
chosen one anyway.

And I have a friend who's a union pipefitter, he makes more per hour
than I do.

 

[[email protected]]

In <[email protected]>, on 01/28/05

Wages for tech folks here in the NW have leveled off IMHO from the highs
we saw in 1998. Journeymen carpenters make more and don't have to deal
with doubly linked lists

I would do all I could to cause my sons to find something outside of
computers. Trades are more valuable and offer more flexibility, IMO. If
you can build a house, plumb it, wire it, or add onto it, if you can
repair automobiles, or other mechanical devices, you will always be in
demand, and no one can outsource their car repairs to another damn
country.

The most important issue is doing something that you enjoy. Being content,
and having fun, is more important than money or the imagined prestige of
being a programmer, or a hardware engineer. If you enjoy those things,
that is great, but my mistake twenty five years ago was choosing
electronics because it was popular and seemed to offer opportunity, not
because I was particularly enamored with it. Now I am paying for that
error in a big way.

Good luck to you and your son.

John

 

[Joerg]

Hello Tim,

And I have a friend who's a union pipefitter, he makes more per hour
than I do.

Because a busted water main cannot be outsourced. Same for the UPS
package, dry-walling, roofing, tiling, a broken washing machine, acute
tooth aches, twisted ankles, heart attacks and so on.

In today's environment one has to look at things through the cold hard
eyes of a business man and leave all emotional stuff off the table.
Which professions are outsourceable? To what extent? Is there a sharp
decline or aging out of existing talent (and don't always blindly
believe some trade org or other 'authority' on that one)? When baby
boomers age, what are they going to apply their nest egg funds towards?
Home improvement? Vacation homes? In-home care? Medical? Dental? A
pristinely restored 60's Corvette that they couldn't have when young?

The next question would be: As an adult, do I think I could really run
my own business? Do I want to? Would I be ready to move wherever it
takes, no matter where my folks live? Out of state? Overseas? If out of
state, which ones are best for biz? Now I don't want to stray into
politics on that last one but I'd sure know which ones these are and
which ones are not.

Then, a thorough look at Monster Board will give a pretty clear picture
of what's en vogue and what's not. I don't believe it'll change too
fundamentally in the near future.

Just my two cents.

Regards, Joerg

 

[Charles Edmondson]

My son has expressed an interest in computers and I have attempted to
caution him about the offshoring phenom, to no avail. Is there and
definitive data on the prospects, either positive or negative, for
career potential doing programming?

The basic answer is "Do what you love, and love what you do!"

If he really enjoys programming, and is good at it, he will find
employment, or go into business for himself. If it is just a job or a
paycheck, it doesn't matter...

There are always positions open for GOOD programmers and software
engineers, as well as other technical positions. The hard part is
always having the people skills to find them.

 

[Spehro Pefhany]

The basic answer is "Do what you love, and love what you do!"

If he really enjoys programming, and is good at it, he will find
employment, or go into business for himself. If it is just a job or a
paycheck, it doesn't matter...

There are always positions open for GOOD programmers and software
engineers, as well as other technical positions. The hard part is
always having the people skills to find them.

Maybe it should start to resemble the advice you'd give to a kid
thinking about a career in MLB or something. Keep going with it, but
have a backup plan so you can fall back on something reliable like law
or medicine.


Best regards,
Spehro Pefhany

 

[Boris Mohar]

Within 10 or 15 years the programming language will be plain English or
Chinese. Programmers will just speak into the microphone.

Programmers will be two for a penny.

Really? Just because anyone can talk it doesn't mean that they can think.

 

[[email protected]]

On Fri, 28 Jan 2005 21:43:29 +0000 (UTC), "Reg Edwards"

Really? Just because anyone can talk it doesn't mean that they can
think.

Based on the programs I see, and the way that code is written, I think two
for a penny is about the right price......

 

[[email protected]]

Because a busted water main cannot be outsourced. Same for the UPS
package, dry-walling, roofing, tiling, a broken washing machine, acute
tooth aches, twisted ankles, heart attacks and so on.

Maybe not the urgent situations, but it is getting popular to travel to
Thailand and similar places for "medical vacations" where you can get
surgery done "on the cheap"...

And of course the dry-walling, roofing, and tiling trades are getting
flooded with Mexicans, at least around here...

Max

 

[Rene Tschaggelar]

I would do all I could to cause my sons to find something outside of
computers. Trades are more valuable and offer more flexibility, IMO. If
you can build a house, plumb it, wire it, or add onto it, if you can
repair automobiles, or other mechanical devices, you will always be in
demand, and no one can outsource their car repairs to another damn
country.

A fact only inland of the US and perhaps some other big countries.
Over here, with the border being less than 50km, it became popular
to import cars to save a few bucks. Whatever manual work to be done,
eg carpentry, plumbing, is being imported from the other side of the
border. Beside that they get here in less than half an hour, and
work for less, I guess a certain amount of work is never being
taxed as a country border is in between the payer and the one
being paid.

The most important issue is doing something that you enjoy. Being content,
and having fun, is more important than money or the imagined prestige of
being a programmer, or a hardware engineer.

Yes, true.

Rene

 

[Rene Tschaggelar]

Why go
through all this, and simply cater to the coming geriatric needs of the
American elder-group by being a nurse?

Nurses are being imported from wherever.
Over here, we get have predominatly foreigners doing
this job, as it is amongst the lesser well paid ones.

Rene

 

[Rich Grise]

Thanks Tim very insightful. I've tried sterring the boy into security
or something else that requires a physical presence. Having gone
through the pain of an engineering program myself, I don't want to send
him down that path also. Besides, my wallet's just not that fat!

Wages for tech folks here in the NW have leveled off IMHO from the
highs we saw in 1998. Journeymen carpenters make more and don't have to
deal with doubly linked lists

Have you asked "the boy" what _he_ wants to do? "They" say, "do what you
love, and the money will follow".

If he has no clue yet, then maybe he needs to take off and flop around for
awhile. Maybe bus tables or sell shoes, that sort of thing.

Good Luck!
Rich

 

[Rich Grise]

With me it was a choice between Physics, electrical engineering, or
foreign language -- if one of the three wouldn't pay, I would have
chosen one anyway.

And I have a friend who's a union pipefitter, he makes more per hour
than I do.

That's right. If it's just about the money, he should go to plumber school.
Or come down to Long Beach and hang out at the Longshoremen's Union hall.

Surgeon to plumber, on presentation of bill: "I don't make this kind of
money for _surgery_!"
Plumber: "Neither did I, when I was a surgeon."

Good Luck!
Rich

 

[Bradley1234]

Its among the highest paid careers known to mankind, very rewarding and the
future is secure. There is perhaps nothing more certain to be in demand.

There are many programmers in the US. Unfortunately the massive use of
offshore outsourcing was the fault of the incompetent programmer "en masse"

If there was a rise in demand for programming in the 80s/90s it produced a
culture of incompetent, inept dolts who charged ridiculous rates to produce
spaghetti code that was fragile and impossible to be revised.

Companies could not afford the organized unions of incompetent American
software engineering companies to fix the bad software, sort of like an auto
body shop charging $100,000 to fix a dent in some old Chevy, or get a better
job done in TJ for $50

So the push to use offshore outsourcing was a practical one. Companies
based in India would offer software analysis to fix the bad code done by
lazy Americans too incompetent to study SW eng principles, they became
proficient, cheap and well known. The stupid, lazy American programmer type
would want $60 per hour or more and milk it for months until threatened with
being fired, then at the last minute throw together some junk, get paid off,
the company would then seek the next lazy bum to repeat the same cycle. The
same task could be done by some India company for some fraction of cost,
delivered in one week instead of 6 months.

So if your son wants to get involved in software eng, get a formal education
that emphasizes proper design style. Do Microsoft Windows programming using
Visual Studio & the dotnet platform, or WindRiver embedded

 

[Rolavine]

Subject: Re: Employability of Computer Programmers in the US

From: "Reg Edwards" [email protected]
Date: 1/28/05 1:43 PM Pacific Standard Time
Message-id: <[email protected]>

Within 10 or 15 years the programming language will be plain English or
Chinese. Programmers will just speak into the microphone.

Programmers will be two for a penny.

If Microsoft has there way you will have to shove the mic up another part of
your anatomy and fart code in visual procto 17.

Rocky