Ok ok ok, I should go to bed. Last thing. At center the voltage from the pot to ground on each side is 1.5V. Since we have matching resistors in the voltage divider ( I did some reading

) we would expect that to be split in half at the base of the transistor, so about 750mv. I measured base to ground that was about 700 mv, so that checks out. The issue must therefore lie with calculation of the potentiometer itself. I got the same results with two different 10KΩ pots, so we can eliminate malfunctioning hardware. Since a pot is just a voltage divider I would expect 2.5V on each side, but I'm guessing the large resistance affects that. I'm not totally clear on how, but as far as I can make out that HAS to be the problem area.
BED.