H
H. E. Taylor
2006/05/30: MktWatch: Silicon supply could limit solar energy boom
It seems as if now would be the time to shine for solar panel makers, but a
lack of a key raw material will cloud the picture for many over the next
couple of years. With concerns about high fossil fuel prices and greenhouse
emissions driving demand for renewable, cleaner energy sources, solar stocks
have been, well, hot. But while solar companies are sold out of current
capacity, efforts to try to expand to meet rising demand are being thwarted
by a shortage of silicon.
"The polysilicon supply to solar (photovoltaic) manufacturers has been tight
for the better part of two years and is anticipated to be a growing issue
as the PV industry pushes forward on its aggressive expansion plans,"
Merriman Curhan Ford & Co. analyst Brion Tanous said. Supply constraints have
limited production by some manufacturers, and high prices are hurting profit
margins.
Solar manufacturers must compete with computer-chip companies for highly pure
silicon, which sells for $42 to $60 per kilogram via long-term contracts and
which a tight supply has driven up to more than $150 per kg on short-term
contracts.
Solar PV Market Growth Slows
The potential winners in this scenario, according to industry experts: the
silicon producers themselves, such as MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. (WFR),
and solar-panel companies that use less silicon in their manufacturing,
such as Evergreen Solar Inc. (ESLR) and Energy Conversion Devices Inc. (ENER),
Piper Jaffray analyst Jesse Pichel said.
The solar PV market is expected to grow from $11.2 billion in 2005 to around
$50 billion by 2015, but Pichel anticipates the industry will grow only about
10% in 2006 and 20% in 2007 because of tight silicon supply. That may seem
like a solid rate, but solar panel production in 2005 jumped 44% to about
1.7 gigawatts and has grown at more than 30% a year for five years.
Most solar growth until 2008 - when the silicon supply issue is expected to
abate - will come from thin-film and thin-ribbon technologies that lessen or
eliminate the need for polysilicon, Pichel said. Evergreen Solar's manufacturing
process uses a thin ribbon of laser cut material, so it wastes less silicon
than the wire-sawing method used to create silicon wafers, Chief Executive
Richard Feldt said at a conference earlier this month. Currently, Evergreen
uses about 6 grams of silicon per watt when producing panels, versus the average
of about 10g/watt for the industry. The company plans to get its number down
to 5g/watt by the end of the year, Feldt said.
Meanwhile, Energy Conversion's panel-manufacturing process uses a silane gas
to deposit a thin film of silicon on a metal substrate. The process uses 500
times less silicon than typical solar cell manufacturing, and the panels produce
more electricity on cloudy days, said Subhendu Guha, president of the company's
United Solar Ovonic unit. However, though thin-film technologies don't use as
much silicon, they have their own issues. It is still "what I'd call an emerging
technology," Thomas Weisel Partners analyst Kevin Monroe said. The efficiency of
the thin cells - how much sunlight they convert to electricity - is less than
the 15% efficiency of PV cells using silicon, he said. Usually, the efficiency
is around 7% to 10%.
[...]
<http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Sto...E908791-105B-400C-B94B-BD01BC3AA20F}&keyword=>
<regards>
-het
--
"The universe is full of magical things patiently waiting for
our wits to grow sharper." -Eden Phillpotts
Energy Alternatives: http://www.autobahn.mb.ca/~het/energy/energy.html
Energy News: http://www.autobahn.mb.ca/~het/energy/energynews.html
H.E. Taylor http://www.autobahn.mb.ca/~het/
It seems as if now would be the time to shine for solar panel makers, but a
lack of a key raw material will cloud the picture for many over the next
couple of years. With concerns about high fossil fuel prices and greenhouse
emissions driving demand for renewable, cleaner energy sources, solar stocks
have been, well, hot. But while solar companies are sold out of current
capacity, efforts to try to expand to meet rising demand are being thwarted
by a shortage of silicon.
"The polysilicon supply to solar (photovoltaic) manufacturers has been tight
for the better part of two years and is anticipated to be a growing issue
as the PV industry pushes forward on its aggressive expansion plans,"
Merriman Curhan Ford & Co. analyst Brion Tanous said. Supply constraints have
limited production by some manufacturers, and high prices are hurting profit
margins.
Solar manufacturers must compete with computer-chip companies for highly pure
silicon, which sells for $42 to $60 per kilogram via long-term contracts and
which a tight supply has driven up to more than $150 per kg on short-term
contracts.
Solar PV Market Growth Slows
The potential winners in this scenario, according to industry experts: the
silicon producers themselves, such as MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. (WFR),
and solar-panel companies that use less silicon in their manufacturing,
such as Evergreen Solar Inc. (ESLR) and Energy Conversion Devices Inc. (ENER),
Piper Jaffray analyst Jesse Pichel said.
The solar PV market is expected to grow from $11.2 billion in 2005 to around
$50 billion by 2015, but Pichel anticipates the industry will grow only about
10% in 2006 and 20% in 2007 because of tight silicon supply. That may seem
like a solid rate, but solar panel production in 2005 jumped 44% to about
1.7 gigawatts and has grown at more than 30% a year for five years.
Most solar growth until 2008 - when the silicon supply issue is expected to
abate - will come from thin-film and thin-ribbon technologies that lessen or
eliminate the need for polysilicon, Pichel said. Evergreen Solar's manufacturing
process uses a thin ribbon of laser cut material, so it wastes less silicon
than the wire-sawing method used to create silicon wafers, Chief Executive
Richard Feldt said at a conference earlier this month. Currently, Evergreen
uses about 6 grams of silicon per watt when producing panels, versus the average
of about 10g/watt for the industry. The company plans to get its number down
to 5g/watt by the end of the year, Feldt said.
Meanwhile, Energy Conversion's panel-manufacturing process uses a silane gas
to deposit a thin film of silicon on a metal substrate. The process uses 500
times less silicon than typical solar cell manufacturing, and the panels produce
more electricity on cloudy days, said Subhendu Guha, president of the company's
United Solar Ovonic unit. However, though thin-film technologies don't use as
much silicon, they have their own issues. It is still "what I'd call an emerging
technology," Thomas Weisel Partners analyst Kevin Monroe said. The efficiency of
the thin cells - how much sunlight they convert to electricity - is less than
the 15% efficiency of PV cells using silicon, he said. Usually, the efficiency
is around 7% to 10%.
[...]
<http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Sto...E908791-105B-400C-B94B-BD01BC3AA20F}&keyword=>
<regards>
-het
--
"The universe is full of magical things patiently waiting for
our wits to grow sharper." -Eden Phillpotts
Energy Alternatives: http://www.autobahn.mb.ca/~het/energy/energy.html
Energy News: http://www.autobahn.mb.ca/~het/energy/energynews.html
H.E. Taylor http://www.autobahn.mb.ca/~het/
